from politico recommended by george soros
OPINION | WASHINGTON AND THE WORLD
The Real Goal of Trump’s Middle East Plan
It’s not peace. It’s power.
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 28: U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a joint statement in the East Room of the White House on January 28, 2020 in Washington, DC. The news conference was held to announce the Trump administration's plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images
By ROBERT MALLEY and AARON DAVID MILLER
01/28/2020 05:39 PM EST
Robert Malley is president and CEO of the International Crisis Group. He was the White House coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf Region under President Obama.
Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator in Republican and Democratic administrations.
The Trump administration’s long-awaited and ill-named peace plan has many objectives, but making peace isn’t among them.
Neither is jump-starting negotiations, or nudging the parties toward compromise, or even enshrining implicit, private understandings in the hope Israelis and Palestinians might eventually publicly espouse them—each one of which, as we know from successful and unsuccessful experience, has been featured as the goal of past American plans.
The motives behind a document conceived without any Palestinian input, unveiled on the same day as an important vote in the Israeli parliament on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s immunity, and less than a year before Americans vote for their next president, are at once more mundane and more grandiose.
The mundane reasons, first. It’s hard not to see in the timing an effort by Trump to help Netanyahu in Israel’s elections six weeks from now, and, more than that, an effort by Trump to help Trump—to shore up support from evangelicals and conservative Republicans as he heads into his reelection campaign.
Critics argue that the administration ought to have waited for the outcome of the March Israeli elections and the formation of a new government, but that misses the point. To wait that long would mean waiting until May, if not longer should elections once again end inconclusively, which means taking the risk of not releasing it at all. Besides, the rollout provides a welcome distraction from the impeachment trial, allowing the president to claim he is dedicated to important matters of state as Democrats fiddle with crass politics.
Whether this ends up really helping either Netanyahu or Trump is unclear, although that too is beside the point. The Trump team believes the plan will help both its campaign and Netanyahu’s, whether they are right in that regard or not. Some right-wing constituencies may balk at the suggestion that this could lead to a Palestinian state—although that would occur well into the future and only if and when the Palestinians meet a series of unrealistic conditions. And even then, any putative state would be so fragmented, disjointed, surrounded by Israel and subject to Israeli security control that it would be at best a state in name only. Those critics likewise may be angry at the suggestion that the Palestinians could have a capital in East Jerusalem—although the parts of the city that the U.S. plan contemplates forming this capital are of such minor significance that most people would hardly equate them with Jerusalem itself. In theory, hard-line Israelis could also protest the notion that there will be no new settlements for years—but even that constraint is essentially meaningless, since the plan already munificently grants to Israel all the West Bank territory in which it has wished to build settlements.
In short, this is a plan that gives Israel everything it wants, concedes to Palestinians everything Israel does not care for, tries to buy off the Palestinians with the promise of $50 billion in assistance that will never see the light of day, and then calls it peace.
So a politically expedient move intended to boost Trump and Netanyahu’s election chances, yes. But without any broader implication? Not so fast.
The ideas put forward by the administration may not tell us anything much about the future of Middle East peace, other than to make more plain what was already manifest—that the notion of a viable two-state solution increasingly is a thing of the past, and that the de facto annexation of West Bank territory may soon become de jure. Israelis for the most part will accept the proposal, Palestinians of all stripes will reject it and Arab states will utter bland pronouncements designed to neither upset a U.S. president whose reprisals they dread nor outrage their public opinions whose moods they fear. But those ideas tell us quite a bit about the unfolding nature of Trump’s foreign policy as an ever-expanding and ever-more aggressive attempt to erase traditional rules and impose new ones.
A line can be drawn from the decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, to the killing of Qassem Soleimani, to this attempt to fundamentally rewrite the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement at the Palestinians’ expense. Each reflects an administration increasingly confident in its way, indifferent to the views of others, enamored with the exercise of its own power, certain that it can change reality by the mere fact of enforcing its will. Each decision feeds on the prior ones, as the administration is emboldened by the absence of serious, immediate backlash to any of its precedent-shattering steps.
It was warned that transferring the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem could prompt massive anti-American protests in the Arab and Muslim worlds. The move was greeted with the equivalent of a diplomatic shrug. The administration was then cautioned that killing Soleimani would trigger dangerous Iranian retaliation, potentially leading to yet another costly U.S. war. Thirty Iranian ballistic missiles but no American deaths later, Trump’s team can yet again depict its critics as unduly alarmist.
There is a countervailing view, of course. Moving the embassy undermined any remaining pretense that the U.S. administration could play a mediating role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As for Iran’s reaction to Soleimani’s killing, it may have been containable, but when is the last time a state launched a salvo of missiles on an American military base, and when is the last time the U.S. failed to respond? It is likely that neither Tehran nor its myriad militant nonstate allies have said their last word; rockets aimed at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad remind us of that. But much of that is conjecture, and for the most part the more serious costs that are mentioned lie in the future. For the Trump administration, speculation on what might lie ahead tomorrow is immaterial, for it discounts the transformational effect of what it has done now. The administration traffics in what is palpable; it deals exclusively with the here and now.
So, when Palestinian indignation at a plan that runs roughshod over their aspirations is not matched by any concrete action, when Arab states react in muted tones to a proposal that negates any Muslim claim to Jerusalem’s holy sites, when European governments at best mouth well-worn support for an increasingly illusory two-state solution, the lesson the Trump administration will learn is that it can get away with what it does as long as it has the boldness to do it. Impunity will breed an encore.
It is easy to condemn the Trump administration for lacking a strategy. Easy, but wrong.
The Trump administration’s strategy is unfolding before our eyes, the sum total of every new step it takes. It reflects the Trump team’s conviction that power unexercised is power wasted, that power ought to be used to break up the ways of the past, and that past presidents spent far too much time fretting about how America’s rivals would react to our actions when America’s rivals ought to worry about how America will react to theirs. The collective bill at some point will come due, and it could be steep. Until then, the world will be dealing with an increasingly unshackled administration. Prospects for a fair and viable Israeli-Palestinian peace will be just one of its many casualties.
asia trips 1 to 51 india 1-3 1984-2004; indonesia 4-7 (1982-1994) singapore 8-10 (1982-1992) japan (11-17) 1985-2013) thailand (18.19) 1984-1995 malaysia (20-21) 1993 korea (22-23) 1990-2017 bangladesh (24-39) 2007-2018, dubai (40,41) qatar(42) china (43-50) 2016-2019 hong kong 51 (1996) like 7 members of my scotttish family tree i have enjoyed the huge privilege of learning more about advancing the human lot from the two thirds who are asian than my own race caucasian
|...united ; ASIA/MIDDLE EAST: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh & women, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Cyprus, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, North Korea, South Korea, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lebanon/yemen, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore-Asean, Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, -eurasia, Russia- we list twice because most of its land is in asia but traditionally its capital and history is categorised as european....||Mapping livelihood economics of two thirds of humans- in 1983 london scot james wilson started the economist as a newsletter of royal societies chattering classes- his initial goal ro end poverty and starv=ation in scotland and nearest islands london ruled over- 17 years later queen victoria sent wilson to calcutta with charter bank to end poverty wherever britain ruled over asia; sadly james died 9 months after landing of diarrhea; it took another 120 years before bangladesh, china and unicef taught every village mother how to cure diarrhea with a recipe of water sugar and salts; from this first open source health service, a billion women across the continent spent 1970-2020 ending extreme poverty - with the help of universities who knew fazle abed vest, at www.abedmooc.com we track how/why the world used bangladesh as its lab for solutions that worked without access to electricity or any of the engineering that glasgow gave to the world from 1760; some people ask what happened to the economist mission- you can read 2nd editor walter bagehot's attempts to help victoria journey to commowealth at the english constituition; but progress was to slow to prevent the colonial eara where whites 15% designed world trade to exclude most of human development in the economist's 1943 centenary biography; at that tie my dad was teenage navigator in alied bomber command stationed in modrnday myanma; the east end of the bay of bengal opposite to calcutta's west end; what happened next to bay of bengal - yuo'd thnk kamala harris and berkeley let alone howard alumni would urgenrly follow coming from her mothers'schennai- in a hasty retreat from responsibility anywhere the british raj had rlued -india eas partioned; calcutta the superport of asoa's 19th century was assigned to india; the rest of the bay was given to pakistan to rule; it took 24 years for bangladeshi people to win back indepenence now the 8th most populous nation with less than zero capital; my father norman macrae mapped varios asian economic models from 1962 when he first surveyed hs war time foe japan - he named the model poorest villagers would need to network rural kensianism; while he named the win-win supercity/port model of tokyo capital belt roadtsrs; for the next 30 years those who saw the economist as the first viewspaper for debating globalisation exponentials were trewed to regular updates on every asian peoples progess or not in sharing these new economic modelsSustainability's last chance decade: Feb 2021 2025report.com 37th annual update- economistpoor.com - thanks to hard work of asian motherhood, one billion asians have ended extreme poverty in the last 40 years - research shows human development's greatest lesson is not yet a curriculum in any western university -can you help adamsmith.app change economists before year end summits in Glasgow 1 2 & Dubai -try applying Economist alphabet Ai Bank Child Diary Edu Food Green Health Inclusion ..||my scottish family's concern for development of two thirds of humans who are Asian goes bac 150+ years to founding of the pharmacy kemp's corner in mumbai to grandad's sir kenneth kemp's 25 years of mediation with gandhi leading to sir ken's last project wrining up the legalese of india's independence to my father's 40 years reporting asia's sustainability entrepreneurial revolution in The Economist; to his last article 20 years later on lessons from bangladesh needed to rectify the west's subprime disaster: japan's ambassador to dhaka helped aspiring youth journalists and others listen to sir fazle abed legacy debriefs - see our catalogue abed.games offering the most vital alumni networks youth can linkin if they are to celebrate being the first sustainability generation||REFERENCES UN ENVOY EDUCATION -asia has proven to be greates champion of former uk prime minister Gordon brown -10 years un envoy edu links include A 1 2 lots of moving parts - some are very radical empowering new universities and apprenticeships - I have been tracking the for 5 years since being at un launch 2016 - can try and help with queries email@example.com - if real summits return end 2021 hope to unite updates cop26 nov Glasgow and worlds largest edu summit allied to uae expo dec -meanwhile zooms can make connections|
Friday, January 17, 2020
Saturday, January 11, 2020
thank you for article 2020 Burst of Indian Spring by Javeed Mirza- its deep enough anthropologically: cross-culturally (but eg i need a more elementary version- how did the whole of india change negatively or positively when the brits moved the capital in 1913 from calcutta to delhi- a very retrograde move since at least as far as alumni of shipping engineers and oil ceos are concerned- india's joy of world trade needed to flourish organically out of both mumbai and kolkata not by masters of admin out of landlocked delhi)- - can i suggest you do the following
Henry Rosovsky - 1991 - Education
Norman Macrae, "The Most Important Choice So Few Can Make," The Economist, September 30, 1986. 14. I can think of no better example than my 110 THE ...
javeed- can you start up a readers club of indian spring among people whose family history empowers depth of care about future of india - particularly from their place of birth or family tree (as that provides a portrait of how tech has or has not come on in leaps and bounds)
maybe the people circulated can help scale such a club-mostofa knows sunita gandhi with school of 50000 students interested in reconciliation - indeed they are the only school unesco recognises for having such a curriculum which has kept the adults of the multi-ethnic lucknow harmonious- i also attended a 2004! global reconciliation summit 100 yards from parliament at the indira gandhi national cultural centre: chief guest at that time minster of education and information technology a good combo!- the problem was our papers including mine on universityofstars.com were due to be published but the next week the tsunami hit and all the grassroots networkers had years of urgent work to redo
let me be blunt both america and india need a 5g united states model but both have congresses living in era's of ordering people top-down that have not advanced in deep open space since the horse was the application man used to mediate with
- if india chooses now to align -to 5G - with trump or the west and not with the south or east- my prediction is hellish - not because i want it to be but because both mathematically and humanly it cannot consciously be anything else
I strongly recommend you see if you can fund three or more people able to advance your paper from different local viewpoints and then all go visit brac at the same time- brac has at least 7 moving parts - if you only want to see schools safiqul islam organises that every week for visitors- if you want to understand every partner sir fazle abed did deepest innovations with to advance womankind then you already know who to meet
chris macrae universityofstars.com +1 240 316 8157
ps the un report on digital cooperation fudged this issue when it reported last summer even though it was mainly compiled by an indian gentleman firstname.lastname@example.org in geneva who had previously done great reports on future of ai in india-isnt there even one person in the india delegation to the un that will help you unite other delegations including the 40 plus nations that support http://www.educationaboveall.org whose qatar leaders you know well