from politico recommended by george soros
OPINION | WASHINGTON AND THE WORLD
The Real Goal of Trump’s Middle East Plan
It’s not peace. It’s power.
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 28: U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a joint statement in the East Room of the White House on January 28, 2020 in Washington, DC. The news conference was held to announce the Trump administration's plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images
By ROBERT MALLEY and AARON DAVID MILLER
01/28/2020 05:39 PM EST
Robert Malley is president and CEO of the International Crisis Group. He was the White House coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf Region under President Obama.
Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator in Republican and Democratic administrations.
The Trump administration’s long-awaited and ill-named peace plan has many objectives, but making peace isn’t among them.
Neither is jump-starting negotiations, or nudging the parties toward compromise, or even enshrining implicit, private understandings in the hope Israelis and Palestinians might eventually publicly espouse them—each one of which, as we know from successful and unsuccessful experience, has been featured as the goal of past American plans.
The motives behind a document conceived without any Palestinian input, unveiled on the same day as an important vote in the Israeli parliament on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s immunity, and less than a year before Americans vote for their next president, are at once more mundane and more grandiose.
The mundane reasons, first. It’s hard not to see in the timing an effort by Trump to help Netanyahu in Israel’s elections six weeks from now, and, more than that, an effort by Trump to help Trump—to shore up support from evangelicals and conservative Republicans as he heads into his reelection campaign.
Critics argue that the administration ought to have waited for the outcome of the March Israeli elections and the formation of a new government, but that misses the point. To wait that long would mean waiting until May, if not longer should elections once again end inconclusively, which means taking the risk of not releasing it at all. Besides, the rollout provides a welcome distraction from the impeachment trial, allowing the president to claim he is dedicated to important matters of state as Democrats fiddle with crass politics.
Whether this ends up really helping either Netanyahu or Trump is unclear, although that too is beside the point. The Trump team believes the plan will help both its campaign and Netanyahu’s, whether they are right in that regard or not. Some right-wing constituencies may balk at the suggestion that this could lead to a Palestinian state—although that would occur well into the future and only if and when the Palestinians meet a series of unrealistic conditions. And even then, any putative state would be so fragmented, disjointed, surrounded by Israel and subject to Israeli security control that it would be at best a state in name only. Those critics likewise may be angry at the suggestion that the Palestinians could have a capital in East Jerusalem—although the parts of the city that the U.S. plan contemplates forming this capital are of such minor significance that most people would hardly equate them with Jerusalem itself. In theory, hard-line Israelis could also protest the notion that there will be no new settlements for years—but even that constraint is essentially meaningless, since the plan already munificently grants to Israel all the West Bank territory in which it has wished to build settlements.
In short, this is a plan that gives Israel everything it wants, concedes to Palestinians everything Israel does not care for, tries to buy off the Palestinians with the promise of $50 billion in assistance that will never see the light of day, and then calls it peace.
So a politically expedient move intended to boost Trump and Netanyahu’s election chances, yes. But without any broader implication? Not so fast.
The ideas put forward by the administration may not tell us anything much about the future of Middle East peace, other than to make more plain what was already manifest—that the notion of a viable two-state solution increasingly is a thing of the past, and that the de facto annexation of West Bank territory may soon become de jure. Israelis for the most part will accept the proposal, Palestinians of all stripes will reject it and Arab states will utter bland pronouncements designed to neither upset a U.S. president whose reprisals they dread nor outrage their public opinions whose moods they fear. But those ideas tell us quite a bit about the unfolding nature of Trump’s foreign policy as an ever-expanding and ever-more aggressive attempt to erase traditional rules and impose new ones.
A line can be drawn from the decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, to the killing of Qassem Soleimani, to this attempt to fundamentally rewrite the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement at the Palestinians’ expense. Each reflects an administration increasingly confident in its way, indifferent to the views of others, enamored with the exercise of its own power, certain that it can change reality by the mere fact of enforcing its will. Each decision feeds on the prior ones, as the administration is emboldened by the absence of serious, immediate backlash to any of its precedent-shattering steps.
It was warned that transferring the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem could prompt massive anti-American protests in the Arab and Muslim worlds. The move was greeted with the equivalent of a diplomatic shrug. The administration was then cautioned that killing Soleimani would trigger dangerous Iranian retaliation, potentially leading to yet another costly U.S. war. Thirty Iranian ballistic missiles but no American deaths later, Trump’s team can yet again depict its critics as unduly alarmist.
There is a countervailing view, of course. Moving the embassy undermined any remaining pretense that the U.S. administration could play a mediating role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As for Iran’s reaction to Soleimani’s killing, it may have been containable, but when is the last time a state launched a salvo of missiles on an American military base, and when is the last time the U.S. failed to respond? It is likely that neither Tehran nor its myriad militant nonstate allies have said their last word; rockets aimed at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad remind us of that. But much of that is conjecture, and for the most part the more serious costs that are mentioned lie in the future. For the Trump administration, speculation on what might lie ahead tomorrow is immaterial, for it discounts the transformational effect of what it has done now. The administration traffics in what is palpable; it deals exclusively with the here and now.
So, when Palestinian indignation at a plan that runs roughshod over their aspirations is not matched by any concrete action, when Arab states react in muted tones to a proposal that negates any Muslim claim to Jerusalem’s holy sites, when European governments at best mouth well-worn support for an increasingly illusory two-state solution, the lesson the Trump administration will learn is that it can get away with what it does as long as it has the boldness to do it. Impunity will breed an encore.
It is easy to condemn the Trump administration for lacking a strategy. Easy, but wrong.
The Trump administration’s strategy is unfolding before our eyes, the sum total of every new step it takes. It reflects the Trump team’s conviction that power unexercised is power wasted, that power ought to be used to break up the ways of the past, and that past presidents spent far too much time fretting about how America’s rivals would react to our actions when America’s rivals ought to worry about how America will react to theirs. The collective bill at some point will come due, and it could be steep. Until then, the world will be dealing with an increasingly unshackled administration. Prospects for a fair and viable Israeli-Palestinian peace will be just one of its many casualties.
|in human population terms the greatest education and innovation miracles needed to stem from asia-pacific -see rural keynesian mapmaking since 1977-|
moores law has been multiplying 100 times more human connectivity per decade since moon landing- it was inevitable that by 2020s the east and west's greatest risks and need for solutions would be the same- in economic terms edutech needed to connect win-wins between youth of all hemispheres race to sdgs- you cant be 5g ai ed 5-sense cyber space interconnected and have some communities thriving and others collapsing- make an index of who was testing ready, what big data they can now ai analyse and the opposite league table- you may conclude that any millennial who wants to help the war on virus needs hitrust millennial friend across the far east islands of japan taiwan hk singapore the peninsular of south korea, mainland china , every border of china that wants data without fatal gaps
human development economics- the economist mapped these between 1962 and 1978- then turned to educational and financial entrepreneurial revolution needed to win-wn worldwide if the post-industrial knowhow webbing planet was to huper connect millennials as the first sdg generation
|.....after world war 2 the main community resiliency needs were mappable across the continent of asia where over 60% of human beings lived without access to electricity grids because europes colonial empires led the island-led mernatike world uk pound economy had focused on mercantile trade- moreover the way the usa had developed across the continent was not replicable to asia- however asian development solutions might have some parallels for developing two more tenths of human beings living in africa and central and south america- we track 4 technology revolutions that grew |
; deming inspired engineering, rural keynesianism beginning with borlaug crop science and barefoot medis, satellites space , telecoms and mobiles- and analytical digital capacity beginning with von neumann as father of programmable computing and promising 100 times moore analytical power per decade through moores law-whee and how did these force ,ultipliers map human development win-wins- and how did they intersect positively or negatively with macroeconomists who kept on perpetrating paper currencies dynamics of the pound and then its far bigger successor the dollar economy.....
|Economistindia.net and EconomistBangla.com and EconomistRefugee.com welcome you to the hitchhikers guide to the oceans Belts and Continents railRoads/pipes/cables etc -bottom up solutions need replicating through communities as digital leapfrog collaboration permits what half a millennium og mercantile colonisation never could celebrate - health is the most fundamental service of girl empowerment communities - so special thanks from girls to health servants like Brilliant, Kim ,Sir Fazle and universal health id network of Nilekani. |
UNwomens linkedin:..schools new curricula:2/5 of people live in china & s.asia- how to share their sustainability solutions everywhere; 2/5 of world's land is in china and its north and north west-how do overland roads linking in sustainability; far more than 2/5 of world shipping trade revolves round coastal belt east of china- how will sustainbility world trade roures map- join us at BRI.school- next week long retreat BRACinn Dhaka sept 30 to Oct 6. Special thanks to AlibabaUni.com and NormanMacrae.net for this special opprtunity to celebrate yerr 50 of The Economist's Entrepreneurail Revolution - redesign every market's value chain to SME networks thrive by changing education until youth livelihods match sustainability goals rising everywhere. RSVP firstname.lastname@example.org
what can unicorn analysis tell us about whether investors and educators want youth to be the SDG generation?
related tour asia rising with nhk
GOAL 1 - ending poverty begins with ending the lottery- current odds about 1 in 4 - that the next girl born will have next to no chance of a decent livelihood- mostly this results from history's era of colonisation which spiralled over 5 centuries 16th to 20th as a few monetarily large nations (about tenth of peoples) decimated the economies of others; it wasn't really to 1972 that one of 10 most populated ex colonial nations bangladesh started today's benchmark solution to ending rural poverty- born as a new nation bangladesh had next to zero taxes to govern social solutions with but unlike other colonies its 2 most extraordinary economists went the villages to live and learn with the poor- and to see how partnering with foreign assistance bottom-up girl empowered communities could build - the greatest case of Entrepreneurial Revolution since journalist records began in 1968. Consider Bangladesh's grassroots networking involved 25 years of no electricity and no digital development follows by partnering tech companies with experiments since 1996 today economistpoverty benchmarks solutions at brac and bkash and since april 2018 chinese greatest fintech for small enterprise have joined in these partnerships so that sino-s asia is the space to celebrate girl empowerment and every extreme solution to goals 1 to 17 .. those who wish to end poverty in old cities of big nations might start linking ted leonsis 1 2 Asia's SDG advocates 1 2 hail from : India: Dia Mirza 1, Qatar Sheikha Moza 1, China Jack Ma, Iraq Murad
Friday, January 17, 2020
Saturday, January 11, 2020
thank you for article 2020 Burst of Indian Spring by Javeed Mirza- its deep enough anthropologically: cross-culturally (but eg i need a more elementary version- how did the whole of india change negatively or positively when the brits moved the capital in 1913 from calcutta to delhi- a very retrograde move since at least as far as alumni of shipping engineers and oil ceos are concerned- india's joy of world trade needed to flourish organically out of both mumbai and kolkata not by masters of admin out of landlocked delhi)- - can i suggest you do the following
Henry Rosovsky - 1991 - Education
Norman Macrae, "The Most Important Choice So Few Can Make," The Economist, September 30, 1986. 14. I can think of no better example than my 110 THE ...
javeed- can you start up a readers club of indian spring among people whose family history empowers depth of care about future of india - particularly from their place of birth or family tree (as that provides a portrait of how tech has or has not come on in leaps and bounds)
maybe the people circulated can help scale such a club-mostofa knows sunita gandhi with school of 50000 students interested in reconciliation - indeed they are the only school unesco recognises for having such a curriculum which has kept the adults of the multi-ethnic lucknow harmonious- i also attended a 2004! global reconciliation summit 100 yards from parliament at the indira gandhi national cultural centre: chief guest at that time minster of education and information technology a good combo!- the problem was our papers including mine on universityofstars.com were due to be published but the next week the tsunami hit and all the grassroots networkers had years of urgent work to redo
let me be blunt both america and india need a 5g united states model but both have congresses living in era's of ordering people top-down that have not advanced in deep open space since the horse was the application man used to mediate with
- if india chooses now to align -to 5G - with trump or the west and not with the south or east- my prediction is hellish - not because i want it to be but because both mathematically and humanly it cannot consciously be anything else
I strongly recommend you see if you can fund three or more people able to advance your paper from different local viewpoints and then all go visit brac at the same time- brac has at least 7 moving parts - if you only want to see schools safiqul islam organises that every week for visitors- if you want to understand every partner sir fazle abed did deepest innovations with to advance womankind then you already know who to meet
chris macrae universityofstars.com +1 240 316 8157
ps the un report on digital cooperation fudged this issue when it reported last summer even though it was mainly compiled by an indian gentleman email@example.com in geneva who had previously done great reports on future of ai in india-isnt there even one person in the india delegation to the un that will help you unite other delegations including the 40 plus nations that support http://www.educationaboveall.org whose qatar leaders you know well